PhD, University of Southern Denmark · Visiting researcher, NYU Stern · Member, EGN Pricing Manager Network ·
20 years of experience in Energy, Gaming, Café and Restaurant, Pharma, Automotive, and Finance.

Nearly every business decision starts with guessing a number. A price, a forecast, what a company is worth. I study how people make those guesses, or measurements, and why whole crowds can miss. Then I build systems that help people and organizations measure better.

A price, a forecast, what a company is worth. I study how people make those guesses, or measurements, and why whole crowds can miss. Then I build systems that help people and organizations measure better.

Three of my own systems
AquiniumEstimate what something is worth, then trade on it. You find out fast if you were right. Companies are led by human managers, so this builds a bridge between human judgment and how companies perform in competitive markets.
Guess the MarketReal stock charts, names hidden. Say where each one goes, and see if you really know. How far can judgment take you, and does it make a clear difference for some people more than for others? This game is built to find out.
Market WinnowEvery night it ranks companies by competitive strength. I trade my own account on it, and you can see the record below.
Industry

Where a wrong measurement costs money

After PhD / Postdoc
Industry Research Industry 2004 Now
TERREPOWER · 2024–now

Dynamic pricing

A price is a bet on what customers will pay. I built a new dynamic pricing model in Julia and lead commercial pricing strategy.

Market Winnow · 2022–2024

Ranking competitive strength

Picking a stock is a guess at how a company will compete. I built algorithms that turn competitive strength into one clear rank from 1 to 6.

123456
Orifarm · 2021–2022

Forecasting and reporting

I brought collective intelligence research into Corporate Finance as a new way to forecast, automated management reporting and built models to price over-the-counter products.

Before PhD / Postdoc
Industry Research Industry 2004 Now
SSP · 2007–2010

Incentives through a crisis

In a financial crisis, incentives matter more than speeches. I ran financial planning for more than 30 retail units and launched Operation Booster for more than 500 employees.

Betmetrics · 2006–2007

Keeping score on the betting crowd

You only find out who can beat the odds by keeping score. I co-founded Betmetrics on a patent application (WO2005071579) that ranks bettors by track record, so customers can buy recommendations graded by it.

Bottom 75%Top 2.5%Members ranked by track record
DONG Energy · 2004–2006

Forecasting at scale

At roughly DKK 14 billion, about 75% of company revenue, a small forecasting error is a big number. I led annual budgets and quarterly profit and loss forecasts for the natural gas division.

DKK 14 billionAbout 75% of revenueA small error
Investing

My research, with my own money on it

From research to a rank

I spent years studying how people judge value and how firms compete. Market Winnow puts that to work. It ranks companies from 1 to 6 on competitive strength, using 36 years of rank history refreshed every night.

Real money behind it

I trade my own account on a system I built around those ranks. Anyone can claim to beat the market, so here is the record. My trading ledger from Saxo Bank is available on request.

Why the record is public

Over 20 years, about 93 in 100 active US large-cap funds lagged the S&P 500 A short record proves very little against that, so it stays public and you can watch it grow.

Deposits and withdrawals do not count as performance. The S&P 500 includes reinvested dividends. This is my record, not investment advice.

My own account against the S&P 500

101.3My account, index
97.2S&P 500, index, 2 Nov close

Both lines start at 100 on 22 September 2026, when the live record began. Last updated 3 November 2026.

Research

From information processing by neurons to measurement by entire collectives

How does a person come up with a number? Information cues arrive one after another, and competing populations of neurons sort each one into a category, sometimes the wrong one. I developed the AQ Model to describe that process. It is one of the first process-level models of how people estimate magnitudes.

It also explains something odd. A whole crowd can get a number wrong, and wrong in a systematic way. You can even see it happening without knowing the true number yourself, because skew, the lean in the crowd's judgments, is itself a cue. How far they lean, and which way, tells you about the collective error.

So I tested it, on 3,053 judgment surveys about US macroeconomic variables. The data strongly supported it.

If you forecast, price or read a market for a living, that is worth knowing.

The Augmented Quincunx (AQ) Model 12 cues
0.70 +6
Crowd mean
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Collective error
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Skew
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Each ball is a judge reading informational cues, getting each one right with probability p. Make the true value extreme and the pile leans over. That lean tells you the crowd is wrong, and which way. Skew is a cue. Move the sliders and see.
Bringing it together

Competition between firms based on natural or artificial measurement

Cognitive psychology

One mind

How does one person estimate a number? That is psychophysics.

Collective intelligence

An organization

Why can a whole group miss in the same direction? That is what organizations have to guard against.

Economics

Competing organizations

When organizations compete, whose judgment wins? That is a market.

PriceValue
Consulting · 2016–2020

First Scientific Advisor to Alle Mod 1

One person against all of Denmark, live on DR1 on Friday nights. Here is the puzzle: how much should the people in the studio count against everyone watching at home? I worked out the theory that set the balance. Created by Nordisk Film TV and now owned by Banijay as All Against 1. It won the Danish TV prize Tvprisen 2017 for innovation of the year in entertainment

44%average share, first season (Banijay)
Let's Collaborate

Everyone will have powerful AI. Few will know where to point it.

Businesses are entering a new kind of competition, and anything every competitor can buy is no advantage. As powerful AI spreads, what stays valuable is the rare person who thinks deeply about the whole problem and can imagine uses of AI that others cannot.

I can use AI, and I can help keep a company at the front of it. The real advantage is the mind directing it. My work runs the full length of the problem, from how one person decides to how companies compete. I am a Plant on the Belbin test, the source of new growth that lasts, and an INTJ on the Myers-Briggs, the type often called the Architect Combine that with AI and you get something competitors will find hard to copy.

Show me the problem. I'll find out how it really works and build what fixes it.

PlantBelbin Test
A smiling cartoon architect in glasses, holding rolled technical drawings.
ArchitectMyers-Briggs Test

I am open to senior roles and consulting. You might be:

LinkedIn Email

A fund manager

Looking for a quant with insight others lack.

A senior director

Wanting AI and collective intelligence to improve how the organization works.

A CFO

Wanting an edge in forecasting from the collective intelligence of the organization.

Overview

I have started companies, done the science, and run the numbers.

Roles
  • 2024–nowCommercial Pricing Manager, TERREPOWER
  • 2022–2024Founder, Market Winnow
  • 2021–2022Financial Analyst, Orifarm
  • 2016–2020Scientific Advisor, Nordisk Film TV
  • 2013–2021Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Southern Denmark
  • 2007–2010Business Controller, SSP
  • 2006–2007CEO and Founder, Betmetrics. Patent application WO2005071579.
  • 2004–2006Economist, DONG Energy
Networks
  • CurrentMember, EGN Pricing Manager Network
Education
  • 2010–2013PhD, University of Southern Denmark. Strategic Organization Design. Supervisors: Thorbjørn Knudsen, Nils Stieglitz.
  • 2011Visiting researcher, NYU Stern, with Zur Shapira
  • 2000–2003MSc Economics, Industrial Economics, University of Southern Denmark
Selected publications